- On 23 January 2025, GCIP hosted a Lunch and Learn session on reference class forecasting.
- The event was opened by FCDO’s Simon Lucas and included a presentation from Oxford Global Projects.
- The event was the second in a series of seven GCIP Lunch and Learn sessions showcasing world-leading methodologies developed or promoted by UK Agency Delivery Partners.
All around the world, infrastructure projects are taking more time and money to complete than planned. Cost overruns affect 70 per cent of all rail, building and dam construction projects, while over a third of road and IT infrastructure schemes fail to stick to schedule. Projects also struggle to achieve expected benefits. IT infrastructure schemes, for example, achieve on average only 72 per cent of anticipated benefits. So deeply entrenched are these issues that just one in every 250 infrastructure projects globally is delivered on budget, on time and meeting expected benefits.
On 23 January 2025, the Green Cities and Infrastructure Programme (GCIP) hosted a Lunch and Learn session on reference class forecasting (RCF), a tool designed to tackle this stubborn problem. RCF avoids overly optimistic project plans by using validated data from relevant past projects to inform accurate forecasts.
“Every project I’ve been involved in claims that it is going to be delivered faster and more efficiently than previous projects,” said Simon Lucas, Head of Profession for Climate and Environment Infrastructure and Energy at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). “RCF really puts the facts behind that optimism bias and gives us a much better estimate of what the real costs and times are going to be. If we can learn from the past, we can prepare much better or the future.”
The Lunch and Learn used the example of bus rapid transit (BRT) to explore RCF in detail. “BRT is often seen as a way to deliver benefits to an urban area that rail could do, but at a lower cost,” explained Colin Brader, GCIP Transport Thematic Lead. “But the costs involved vary considerably. BRT could be anything from an enhanced bus priority scheme to a high-infrastructure initiatives like Bogotá’s TransMilenio. Being aware of delivery costs is essential to success – and RCF is an essential tool to support this.”
Dr Samuel Franzen, a Senior Expert at Oxford Global Projects, drilled down into the details. Using data from previous BRT initiatives, he revealed that high-maturity BRT projects should typically increase budgets by 9–30 per cent and timelines by 34–62 per cent to reduce the risk of overrunning. “We also need to be realistic about how many people are going to ride on BRT schemes,” Dr Franzen added. “Half of all BRT projects achieved 17 per cent less ridership than planned or worse. So, decision-makers need to be cautious with ridership and check that the project would still be a good investment, even if ridership was lower than expected.”
The event was the second in a series of seven GCIP Lunch and Learn sessions showcasing world-leading and transformative UK methodologies to raise awareness and interest from FCDO Post. GCIP will follow this event with five more in February 2025, each demonstrating how tools like RCF can be used to support climate-resilient and inclusive cities and infrastructure to facilitate economic growth.
The UK’s Green Cities and Infrastructure Programme is tackling climate change and extreme poverty by accelerating the delivery of sustainable green cities and climate-resilient infrastructure.
Published
04/02/25
